[SMM Cobalt Morning Meeting Summary] Prices of lithium battery raw materials decline, market transactions sluggish

Refined Cobalt:

This week, the spot price of refined cobalt continued to weaken. From the supply side, following the decline in the economic viability of refined cobalt production, the output of refined cobalt this month still decreased slightly. Smelters continued to fulfill long-term contracts, and the spot market for spot orders still relied on trader supplies. However, some recent news has stirred market sentiment, pushing down the transaction price of refined cobalt and triggering panic selling in the market. This appears to be a short-term emotional outburst, with no significant deviation expected in the actual supply-demand structure. From the demand side, downstream producers maintained their purchasing pace as needed, with no significant improvement in purchase willingness. It is expected that next week, the spot price of refined cobalt may continue to weaken.

Cobalt Intermediate Products:

This week, cobalt intermediate products weakened. On the supply side, mines continued to steadily supply long-term contract customers, with traders slightly adjusting their spot order quotations. Despite various market rumors, the subsequent policies of the DRC have not yet been announced, which may only affect short-term trading sentiment without significant improvement in actual supply and demand. On the demand side, after a round of procurement earlier, downstream purchase willingness has been slightly low recently. Coupled with poor feedback on cobalt salt shipments, smelters have become more sensitive to raw material prices, resulting in flat inquiries and buying interest for cobalt intermediate products this week. It is expected that in the near term, the spot price of cobalt intermediate products may slightly weaken.

Cobalt Sulphate:

This week, the spot price of cobalt sulphate continued to decline. From the supply side, quotations from mainstream smelters have not changed, but spot quotations for cobalt sulphate from recycling plants have continued to decline significantly, with extremely sporadic transactions and transaction prices far below actual quotations. From the demand side, the overall purchasing sentiment of downstream producers remains poor, with no improvement in orders from material plants. Raw materials are still being consumed from inventory, and producers' purchase willingness continues to decrease, maintaining only fixed inquiries without any buying actions. It is expected that next week, the spot price of cobalt sulphate may fluctuate and weaken.

Cobalt Chloride:

This week, the price of cobalt chloride decreased. From the supply side, quotations from major smelters remained firm, showing a certain reluctance to sell. However, some smelters had a stronger willingness to sell, leading to a small number of low-priced transactions in the market, which pulled down the overall spot price. From the demand side, downstream enterprises mainly conducted just-in-time procurement and generally held a certain inventory of cobalt salts, with fewer inquiries and a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. Nevertheless, due to the ongoing shortage of raw materials, market bullish sentiment remains high and consistent. It is expected that next week, the spot price of cobalt chloride will continue to fluctuate at highs and is unlikely to decline.

Cobalt Salts (Co3O4):

This week, the price of Co3O4 continued to decline. From the supply side, smelters slightly lowered their quotations and showed an increased willingness to sell. On the demand side, most LCO producers had completed their procurement orders earlier and still held a certain inventory, adopting a wait-and-see attitude with low stockpiling willingness. Therefore, market transactions this week were mainly focused on fulfilling existing orders, with low overall activity. However, due to the still high prices of raw material cobalt salts, the downside room for the spot price of Co3O4 in the short term is limited, and it is expected to continue fluctuating at highs.

Cobalt Powder and Others:

This week, the cobalt powder market continued to operate smoothly, with limited overall fluctuations in enterprise quotations and no significant boost in orders from price adjustments. Demand from the downstream alloy industry remained stable, but affected by the rising price of tungsten carbide and its high cost proportion, alloy enterprises focused more on the price trend of tungsten and paid relatively less attention to cobalt powder. Under this market pattern, cobalt powder prices remained stable, lacking obvious drivers for significant price changes in the short term, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market.

Ternary Cathode Precursor:

This week, in the ternary cathode precursor market, prices of 5-series, 6-series, and 8-series products continued to decline. From the perspective of raw material costs, prices of nickel sulphate and manganese sulphate dropped slightly, while cobalt sulphate showed a more significant downward trend. In the NEV market, overall performance in May was poor, with supply contracting MoM from April. It is expected to recover in June, especially influenced by downstream car models preparing for launch and stockpiling in advance, leading to a more obvious increase in orders for 6-series products. In contrast, demand for 5-series products is weak, with their market share expected to continue shrinking, while 8-series products remain relatively stable. In the consumer market, as producers had completed a certain scale of raw material stockpiling in March and April, and with raw material prices continuing to decline, market sentiment has turned cautious, gradually entering a destocking phase. It is expected that orders for consumer products will decrease in June. In terms of price trends, influenced by the continuous decline in cobalt sulphate prices and weak overall demand, there is still room for further downward movement in precursor prices.

Ternary Cathode Material:

This week, the price of ternary cathode material continued to decline. In terms of raw material costs, nickel sulphate, cobalt sulphate, and manganese sulphate all showed a slight downward trend, while lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide prices have not yet hit bottom and continue to be under pressure. In the NEV market, terminal auto sales fell short of expectations, leading to weak demand for cathode materials and low market sentiment. Except for some leading battery cell manufacturers with increased orders, overall demand remains sluggish. In the consumer market, despite rising overseas demand, as producers had conducted a certain degree of advance stockpiling during the price increase of raw materials in March and April, facing the current downward trend in raw material prices, the market is bearish on cobalt salts and lithium salts. Enterprises have generally switched to destocking operations, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Overall, the market expects a bearish trend in June, with possible contraction on the supply side. In terms of price trends, there is still room for further downward movement in lithium carbonate and cobalt sulphate prices. Influenced by fluctuations in upstream raw material prices, ternary cathode material prices may still decline further.

LCO:

The LCO market was under pressure and declined this week, with mainstream quotations for 4.2V/4.4V/4.5V products falling to 214,000 yuan/mt, 219,000 yuan/mt, and 230,000 yuan/mt, respectively. The price adjustment was mainly driven by dual pressures from the raw material side: battery-grade lithium carbonate continued to fluctuate and decline, with few transactions in the Co3O4 market and a slight price drop. On the supply side, upstream Co3O4 enterprises have relatively high inventories, but the market generally holds a long-term bullish view on cobalt prices, resulting in a clear reluctance to budge on prices. On the demand side, as terminal manufacturers are still digesting battery cell inventories, demand for LCO cathodes has slightly decreased. However, LCO cathode plants generally have low raw material inventories, so they still have a good purchase willingness. Currently, both upstream and downstream are waiting for DRC policies at the end of June. Therefore, the market will remain relatively mediocre in the first half of June.

》Subscribe to view historical spot prices of SMM new energy products

》Click to view SMMNew EnergyIndustry Chain Database

News:    

[CosMX Battery: Change in Investment Project Content, Total Investment Remains at 4 Billion Yuan] CosMX Battery (688772.SH) announced that the company originally planned to invest 4 billion yuan in a high-performance new-type lithium-ion battery project. Now, it has been changed to include the company and its wholly-owned subsidiary as investment entities, with the construction content adjusted to mainly produce consumer battery products. The total project investment remains unchanged at 4 billion yuan, with an overall plan to commence production within 2028. This change does not constitute a related-party transaction or a major asset restructuring.
[Geely Group's Battery Subsidiary Jiyao Tongxing: Anticipates 70 Gwh Battery Capacity by 2027] Zheng Xin, Vice President and Chief Strategy Officer of Geely Holding Group and CEO of Jiyao Tongxing, stated that Jiyao Tongxing will achieve a battery capacity of 70 Gwh by 2027, with eight major production sites in Tonglu, Quzhou, Jianhu, Ganzhou, Shangrao, Yingtan, Ningguo, and Zaozhuang. In terms of business model, Jiyao Tongxing will strive to explore the battery-as-a-service (BaaS) and battery swapping models, establishing a battery bank. Note: Zhejiang Jiyao Tongxing Energy Technology Co., Ltd. ("Jiyao Tongxing" for short) is the main entity for Geely Holding Group's battery business.
[Toyota: Global Auto Sales by Parent Company Up 10% YoY in April] Toyota announced that its global auto sales by the parent company increased by 10% YoY in April, reaching 876,864 units; Japan's auto production by the parent company increased by 6.9% YoY in April, reaching 268,957 units; overseas vehicle production by the parent company increased by 8.2% YoY in April, reaching 545,830 units; and global auto production by the parent company increased by 7.8% YoY in April, reaching 814,787 units. (Financial Associated Press)

SMM New Energy Research Team

Wang Cong 021-51666838

Ma Rui 021-51595780

Lin Ziya 86-2151666902

Feng Disheng 021-51666714

Lv Yanlin 021-20707875

Zhou Zhicheng 021-51666711

Wang Zihan 021-51666914

Wang Jie 021-51595902

Zhang Haohan 021-51666752

Chen Bolin 021-51666836

Xu Mengqi 021-20707868